The Elephant in the Room: Is America Headed toward a second civil war?
It didn’t take long for the media to publish an article inferring a second civil war will pop off if their opponent is elected in Nov. 2024 (See CNN Politics, Jan. 8, 2024: “3 sentences from Abraham Lincoln to explain the Civil War to 2024 GOP candidates.”) A second civil war is not going to break out in the U.S. There will be chaos, and it might seem like a war will break out; But it will not. There will be NO Second Civil War! How can I be sure?
- Since 2020, several people have asked me: “is America headed for another civil war?” My short answer is “No.” Then, I ask the American a question: “Do you want to take someone’s life because of their political beliefs?” 100% have answered “No.” That’s a good start.
- The American Civil War violence began in April 1861. To get to that point, every southern state (13 states) voted to secede from the north. South Carolina first seceded Dec. 20, 1860. Virginia was the last southern state to secede, April 17, 1861. Today, do you think all the legislatures in a blue or red state would agree to declare war on their opponents? Our legislatures can’t agree what’s on their take-out pizza–good luck!
- While we are at it, how many civilians are willing to kill or die for any of the politicians? None or almost none.
There’s the money and danger factor as well.
- A civil war does not benefit the military industrial complex, the big companies, or politicians, especially since some of their factories and families are on American soil. Yes, they can fly their relatives out of the states, but their businesses would be destroyed or business, in general, could slow down.
- Most likely, the economy would collapse before “a side” could win. Our dollar is not that strong, see dollar index.
For all of our bitching and snarky comments, Americans are a community. This connection didn’t exist during the Civil War era.
- In the 1800s, the states and local municipalities both north and south were isolated. It was like mini-foreign countries within one big territory. Fast forward, today we are intermingled. Half of North Carolina and Texas are “Yankles” (Yankee-Rebels) – Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New Yorkers and Californians.
- We have immediate travel, connection with one another. You can hop on a plane in NYC and get to Kansas or Idaho the same day! The 1800s it took months to get from the east coast to the mid-west, if you made it.
- We have immediate communication. You can facetime with relatives and friends in California or Hawaii. You can text them. There is social media.
As I was thinking about the possibility of civil war, a bunch of other considerations popped into my head. Here are just a few:
Other Considerations:
- Who is the enemy? What are the sides? Who are you killing?
- There are many independents and a-political Americans by now. Which side are they on?
- What about poor little isolated Hawaii?
- Is there a draft?
- What are the political-military goals? What are the military strategies? Wait, is there a difference? Yes!
- How do we know who wins or loses?
- What color are the uniforms? What do the flags look like? What side is the military on? Where are the boundaries? At First Manassas (Bull Run), July 21, 1861, quite a few Northern and Southern regiments arrived wearing grey, awkward. This resulted in numerous “friendly fire” incidences. The grey uniforms were because the State Guards’ donned grey uniforms. Also, Lincoln and Davis forgot to coordinate battle attire (yes, that’s satire).
Speaking of politicians, what about those leaders saying we are headed for a civil war? Do you believe everything a politician says? The politicians are being irresponsible, trying to gin up their constituents, or get attention. Leaders are supposed to unite and reassure, not divide and create fear. Depending on your political leanings, you will think the other evil politician is doing the dividing and creating fear. But take a step back, close your eyes and listen, maybe the politician you support is talking smack about civil war? It’s okay if we the people respectfully tell the leaders we support to stop with this negative rhetoric.
Be careful, too, when listening to the Youtubers, Rumblers, Tik Tokkers who say America is headed for a civil war. One, do you believe everything you see or hear online? Two, check out their advertisers. Are any of them survivalist companies? They are trying to get clicks. Three, they may be paid by a foreign actor(s). You don’t know. You can still listen to them, but we are critically thinking creatures, analyze the information with friends and family.
Like 2020 election year, there most likely will be protests, possibly even riots from which groups, who knows? It’s hard to say, white supremacists or Antifa or criminals or foreign actors or all the above? We will have to wait and see. I won’t be anywhere near those events. Unless you plan to go to a riot, you shouldn’t have anything to be too concerned. I have zero military clearance, but I guarantee you our Special Forces and Special Operators have that covered. Our military has been fighting counter-insurgencies for 70 years. The U.S. military and the retired military personnel know what they are doing and will never telegraph what they are doing.
What’s the best remedy for avoiding a second civil war? Getting involved, getting out of the house, getting to know each other, talking to your family, neighbor, and coworker. You don’t have to discuss current events, just visit, listen to one another and laugh. Volunteering is a great way to get involved. Americans have more in common than the politicians or media want us to realize. PEACE!
I’m afraid I must disagree with this essay– not necessarily because I think there will be a civil war, but for the REASONS the essayist uses. There are too many to mention, but to begin with:
1) She mentions states, states being slow to make decisions, etc. This is true, but is either irrelevant to the question of will there be a civil war, or may exacerbate it. For one thing, this is not 1861, but the essayist seems to be stuck in the 1800s in thinking that all wars will or must take place around “states”, having anything to do with states. Or “uniforms”. Many civil wars have been fought for many reasons. I spent part of my youth in Spain, which suffered a long, hard civil war, and which had little to do with “states”, and most of its participants didn’t have or wear uniforms. It was often one faction/party or even city against another– the protagonists often being on the same side of the political spectrum (e.g. Communist Group A vs Anarcho-Syndicalist Group B and so forth). There was also a great deal of civilian vs civilian violence, with no army to be seen for miles. The English civil war was another that was based around religion, and opinions on form of government, and far less to do with geography, though that did play a part. I could go on and on, including the countless civil wars going on in Latin America. Furthermore, large political institutions like states failing to act quickly to address the concerns of individuals may just speed up and worsen the process, not alleviate it.
2) “How many civilians are willing to die for any of the politicians”…. none. Just like none have or wanted to, ever, in any civil war that I’m aware of. People fight and die for their families, for their homes, land, for ideology, etc. I don’t know of any civilians or soldiers who stated in letters etc that they wished to “die” for specific politicians, even during the Civil War. Even the Union troops themselves never said they were “dying for Lincoln” or some such thing. My ancestor fought in the Virginia Militia against Lord Dunmore in 1775, and in not one of his writings or letters did he state that he wanted to die for Patrick Henry or Richard Henry Lee etc.
3) “a civil war would not benefit the military industrial complex”. As I mentioned above, the next civil war may happen in spite of or BECAUSE of the military industrial complex, and have nothing to do with it whatsoever. I don’t think Boeing executives would have much say about it.
4) “We are intermingled”. Geographically, yes. Again, the author is stuck in the 1800s and thinks modern issues depend on geographical location or origin. Modern issues are CULTURAL and POLITICAL. Furthermore, I will say that certain groups DO insult, downplay, denigrate, and look down on other groups and geographical locations. One need only look as far as the push from Northerners to tear down Confederate statues to see that. Furthermore, unlike in 1861, where the vast majority of free people were white and Christian, now society is much more fragmented and many populations are far more isolated culturally and linguistically than before. I have seen huge areas of Florida and Texas, and even neighborhoods in such states as Virginia, where entire neighborhoods do not or hardly speak English, and look on American “culture” as foreign. Unlike in the 1800s, they can go about their entire lives and not need to learn a word of English, nor form any kinds of bonds with people outside their neighborhoods. There are huge swathes of the population who now have wildly different religious views, which makes them hostile to other groups. We are seeing a lot of that on the streets these days in places like New York. That did not exist in the 1860s to nearly the extent that it does now. I am going far afield but in short I don’t see any signs that society is any more truly “intermingled” than it was then. Perhaps workwise, in workplaces, but those bonds are purely mercenary. Also, having grown up in an era before the internet and “Twitter”, I can tell you that society is FAR more hostile to each other and non-intermingled and isolated now than it was in the 1980s or even 1990s.
5) “There will be riots, but I won’t be anywhere near them”. You are very lucky and blessed. However, that means little when those riots come to YOU, and your own neighborhood. On many occasions already, rioters burned down the police departments, businesses, and even dwellings of individual people. How do you think THEY feel about the theory of “I won’t be anywhere near them”. They don’t have that luxury. Also, by urging people to stay in their own enclaves, and stay away from areas that might be less positive about their views (to put it mildly), isn’t that urging social isolationism? And, I can’t exercise my first amendment rights, because to do so might invite a riot? I don’t see that attitude as a solution either. Anyway, eventually, riots will come to EVERYONE’S town, in one way or another. I’ve seen it firsthand, having served as a police officer in an east coast city in which rioters destroyed property and injured people, IN MY CITY. Again, many of us don’t have the luxury of not being there when it happens.
6) “I have zero military experience, but our special forces have that covered”. I do, I served in two branches of the US military, and I can guarantee you that the US military cannot and will not act in any way that you are suggesting on US soil. US law, Posse Comitatus for instance, prohibits that. And frankly, I can’t think of a better way to start or exacerbate a civil war than for US troops to take out American civilians, on US soil. As you said, now there is YouTube and any number of outlets which would post any footage of American troops taking the lives of civilians immediately, and it would circle the world like hotcakes. Which is EXACTLY why the US government will never be foolish enough to do such a thing. That you would suggest such a thing is amazing to me.
7) “We have immediate travel, we can now hop on a plane or in a car and travel etc” Yes, which makes civil war even more dangerous, and not necessarily less likely to happen. All that means is that actors now have very easy access to any targets they may decide on, and very easy egress afterward. In other words, unlike in 1860 when Northern or Southern civilians 500 miles from the front could go about their lives with no worry whatsoever of a sudden attack by the opposite side, or military camps or bases located 500 miles from the front could exist in perfect peace without a worry, now anyone can hop in a car in State A and be at the gate of any base in State X less than 5 or 4 or 3 or 2 hours later. It INCREASES danger, not reduces it. I should know, having had a few million hours of experience setting up perimeter defenses against such possibilities, especially immediately following 9/11. To say that anyone’s access to vehicles and large aircraft now makes us SAFER is completely wrong, sorry. And now there are drones on the battlefield, including fixed-winged ones with very long ranges. During the Civil War, the closest thing to that was the hot-air balloon. No comparison.
I could go on, but I think that sums up the major points.
You are exactly spot on. I to have military experience 5and 1/2 years I was medically retired. I got out came home and joined my sheriff’s department as a deputy after the school was completed. During that time I served two years with the U.S. Marshals as deputy marshal. I also pulled a 14 month tour in Iraq in 05 and 06 as a civil defense contractor. From someone who has seen war on all fronts, I can truly say it is not about anything the writer says it is about taking a stand for the beliefs you hold dear, in my case God. It is also about family country and values one believes are worth fighting for. Now it doesn’t take a genius to look around and figure out this country is severely divided along those lines today. So ask yourself again if civil war is a reality. If you are paying any attention to anything going on today then your answer should be yes
If the “next Civil War” does happen, I just hope it doesn’t interfere with baseball season!
Would a civil war help the Mets?
Can’t hurt!!
As far as poor little isolated Hawaii, I imagine it would be taken up by the sovereignty movement as a reason to re-establish a sovereign government. While there is nostalgia for the Kingdom, I don’t really see that happening as the ali’i/commoner structure doesn’t exist today.
What I see on the mainland is the urban/rural divide. In Germany farmers are protesting. Something like that could happen in the US and in some circumstance spiral out of control, especially if an attempt is made to cast one politician as the root of all evil.
Darn. I was hoping to be part of the Confederate invasion force that would storm the beaches of Oahu. With johnboats and bass boats, instead of Higgins Boats.
People today have the option of voting with their feet. For example, people who don’t like the political environment in California and New York have been bailing out. This may lessen tensions. States have been called “laboratories of democracy” for a reason.
I was pleasantly surprised with this article…
Respectfully, Virginia wasn’t the last state to secede. North Carolina, Arkansas, and Tennessee all seceded after Virginia.
Where is the ECW Blogmeister? Let’s have more Civil War scholarship, less political claptrap.
A very good article. I do agree that there is almost no likelihood of another Civil war, but there will be terrorism. Such incidents will prove how weak the extremist right really is.
I would also like to point out that already our country fought two wars against radical conservatives: our Revolution and the American Civil war. There were early setbacks, but it is worth noting that both times the conservatives were totally crushed by progressive American forces.
I do know many MAGA supporters and they all hate anyone different. However, they are also all over 65 white guys with big guts. The average FOX viewer is over 60. I’d love to see them after a few weeks in the forest, sleeping on the freezing, wet ground, starving with terrible food, and seeing their comrades killed. So where are they going to find millions of young people to actually kill and give up their lives for 77 year old Trump?! Ha!
I’m sure you’re delightful in person
You are one of the most biased liberals on the commentary and I wish you’d keep it to yourself so we can learn something
John is right.
And who in their right mind asks people if they would die for politics. Humans are biased in at least one way. Really who would say ”Yes I would kill people for Biden ” or Trump and not be mentally insane.
Doug, sounds like you’re tipped to one political side, blaming the ills of the country on the other side that you don’t care for, for your own biased reasons. Isn’t this the kind of attitude that causes wars to begin with? “I’m right and you’re wrong”is the attitude of those that consider themselves above everyone else. THEY know what is best for everyone else because they’re “educated.” Either side, liberal or conservative, has a right to speak and exist. It is only when the extreme views of either side try to shove their beliefs down the other sides’ throats, that democracy is in trouble. That is what is happening now in this current environment. Government has shifted to the extreme left, and socialistic ideas are being shoved down throats of Americans who don’t believe in them. And you, of course, as you stated, know conservatives and know that they “hate”everyone different. Hate is a hard word, sir. I surmise that your leftist sympathies are just the other side of the coin on the political spectrum from those you abhor. And categorizing others according to your ideas of age and appearance is an ignorant tactic.
I must also point out that WE were the “rebels” and “ traitors “ when we decided to part from Great Britain in 1776. It all just depends on from what side of the fence your point of view is
developed.
Stop painting everyone who has a different point of view from yours with the same brush. Some kinds of paint just don’t stick.
wow–you loaded all your cliches on me just because I said I knew some MAGA people (you falsely claimed I said “conservative”) and I pointed out that they all FAR from “Civil War Ready”. And I certainly know the difference between conservative and MAGA, since I used to be a Republican. I won’t even bother to answer the other false charges you made against me. But I will point out that if you tell any European about your main charge–that America is “socialist”, they would laugh in your face!!
When I was young, conservatives used to call anything they didn’t like (particularly anything that aided Black Americans) “communist”. That didn’t work, so now you try “socialist”. Sorry, things are much more complicated than that. But keep at it, and don’t forget to vote!
I think the threat of a second American Civil War is overstated. Our country is divided into blue urban areas, surrounded by large tracts of red rural areas. I can’t imagine my RedState colleagues invading the BlueState suburbs and cities. Where would we park our trucks? Where would we find good barbecue and sweet tea? (And NO, you don’t just add sugar to a glass of tea!) The density of Waffle Houses and Buc-ees in those places is simply too low.
Civil War violence broke out in 1855 in Kansas, reaching a pre-secession peak with John Brown – who had murdered several unarmed men in Kansas – leading his terrorist raid on Harper’s Ferry in October 1859. Since 2020 America has been racked with political BLM and ANTIFA riots – more than 600, with dozens of people killed – along with statues and monuments to great Americans torn down or defaced while radical state or city leaders look on, do nothing – and order the police to stand down so it can happen. The current presidential administration refuses to protect the Constitutional rights of Americans they consider to be enemies, regularly violates those rights, is dishonestly prosecuting its political opponents, and is currently holding thousands of political prisoners in jail, something that didn’t even happen during the Civil War or World War II. In fact, the President has, on more than one occasion, threatened to use the military against Americans who “vote for the other guy.” Our national debt has reached the point where it is impossible to pay it down, the economy is in tatters, and violent crime is at a level unmatched in American history. Most of the media covers up these facts – or only discusses them in order to lie that they do not exist. Yes – we are on the verge of civil war.
What other comments have said: today’s polarization is far different from the sectional differences in 1861. At least so far, I have not heard any politician claiming the Federal government spends all of its money in one region or that tariffs favor just one region. And, of course, there is no over-arching regional issue like slavery.
As one comment mentioned, no, Special Forces have nothing covered. Apart from the Posse Comitatus Act, active duty soldiers and most Guardsmen, Reservists simply cannot imagine they would be called on to shoot or perhaps shoot US citizens. We just could not handle that. Things like that will prompt many soldiers to not re-enlist and slow walk orders they believe are wrong. Too, there is the training we all receive that *requires* us to not follow orders we believe are unlawful.
Tom
There’s the Insurrection Act 1796 and 1807, and apparently there is a law of war that allows the Marines to work with the National Guard. I’m not familiar with a lot of acts/laws. The legal aspect of war is not studied much. I know if America is at war (legally), the rules are different than the civil laws. I’m working on a blog series about Lincoln and Habeas Corpus. It’s an interesting conversation. And I’m guessing our Spec Forces would have infiltrated radical groups already. The tough part about figuring out all this, is that real war is fought in the shadows. We aren’t going to know what’s happening.
I agree. There isn’t going to be a civil war. However, if a civil war ever does happen in the U.S. it might look more like the Spanish civil war which is widely misunderstood and should be studied more.
Academically speaking, this is probably one of the poorest essays I have ever read for a multitude of reasons. The internet surprises me less every day but I’m actually grateful to see a line of other commenters call out the inaccuracies even down to the infinitesimal points. The sourcing is a joke and this would get an F even at the community college level (author sources CNN article at beginning but sources absolutely nothing else and just spouts uneducated opinion and conjectures) and as someone who came from a family of primary school teachers that mainly all majored in History – to be blunt I’d fail a high school student for this as it feels like the author is not only blissfully and beyond ignorantly unaware of current political extremism and the America outside of their doorstep but is also completely ignorant to what people will (stupidly) die for.
“‘Do you want to take someone’s life because of their political beliefs?’ 100% have answered ‘No.’ That’s a good start.”
^^^ This. This is the most asinine thing I have ever read in anything that presents itself as scholarly. Need the author be reminded of the greatest assault on American democracy by a bunch of lunatics who DEFINITELY were willing to die for the sake of the Orange Man? Is the author unaware of the Texas border crisis? Might be local news for me but I’m pretty sure (last I checked) our Governor is plastered over national headlines for his insubordination to the feds; not to mention 25 other jerks across the country (governors) aiding him in defying the Supreme Court by sending resources to continue to keep illegally placing razor wire. What about that Justin Mohn, the guy who decapitated his father and placed a video on YouTube with rants against the “Dems”?! The author saying they asked people as a measurement is laughable. What was the polling sample size? What were the demographics? Were multiple party affiliates asked? Age? Sex? Location? “100%” seriously? That would be a really, really, really bad wager but it is a safe bet the author has had little to none of formal exercise in data collection.
I agree with the final point made in this essay about social practice for peace among us Americans but that’s no saving grace to the rest of the body of this work. I agree with a super model who says her aspiration is to “make world peace” but that doesn’t give the model any credibility. It’s cliche and anyone can say it – even if true. It’s weak because the body of the essay is confused, clumsy, naive, full of conjectures, and it is evident the author has NO idea what they are even talking about.
It is hard to take this piece seriously to examine because of the obvious conjectures and language used. It’s like someone wrote a piece they only had 5 minutes to Google the subject over. It’s painful. If this author IS a high school student, I seriously hope they didn’t try to turn this essay in. As someone who has written a lot of papers (even spending up to a month in some) – this piece is beyond the need of a rewrite and I suggest the author look into how to organise their ideas better with outline methods.
“Orange Man?”… obviously you are another ignorant one sided ass. Trump lives rent free in your head as well I see. Fool.
Orange man? The lunatics insurrection??? Do you really think an insurrection by conservatives to overthrow the government would have been unarmed?
The problem here is that liberals like you will never tolerate a conservative and that liberals always know better, and need to set us straight. It’s always let’s turn a red state blue. Too bad that the big blue cities control the red suburbs even though everyone is a tax payer.
This is why people are frustrated and want to separate. Let’s return to states that govern themselves and less federal involvement. The liberals can live in their blue states and do as they wish with their beliefs and their tax dollars. The same for the conservatives in their red states.
Both sides can equally fund a federal government that would handle national issues mutually beneficial to all states. Being equally staffed with no majority for either side and with term limits for all those involved.
Everyone is equal. Just like the Constitution states. How about we follow it. The Forefathers who wrote it evidently were a lot smarter than most of us or maybe had the best intentions for all Americans. I wish that was case of today’s politicians in Washington.
The alternatives are not good. Divorces are bad and a civil war is far worse. Either way, divided we will fall.
I think a breakdown of society is much more likely. The dollar is becoming more worthless by the day. Many young people have little to no ambition and are content with just spending day after day staring at screens. Our politicians are corrupt and can’t see to ever agree to get anything beneficial accomplished. Basic respect for one another as Americans or even just fellow human beings seems to be lost. Social media seems to control the minds and actions of many people. I remember not too long ago when I debated bringing a pistol with me to go to the super market to try and purchase toilet paper. I feel like we will all see a dark time in America within the next few years where basic items such as fuel, food, electricity and running water will be scarce or at the very least it will be irregular and unreliable. I am genuinely worried for the future of this country. I say this as a 44 year old father of three children (20, 18 and 10), small business owner and patriot. I do love this country and all of my fellow Americans, yes even the liberal ones.
It is hard for me to believe this chapter in U S history will end peacefully. There is no more getting along one side has to win
What has convinced you writers that America is so terrible?!
As an historian, I see America now wealthier than ever, at peace, more tolerant than ever, and with an economy that is the envy of the world. Though only 5% of the world’s population, America still leads in innovation, in the arts, and in technology.
Which country out there would you like to move TO—if America is so awful?!
Like I said before, there will be terrorism in our country–but always remember that that is the tactic of the WEAK.
America was much more divided in the late 60s than it is today, for example, yet our Constitution survived. There was even more talk of a “Second Civil War” then than today, yet nothing close to that happened!
Calm down and be an historian. Things have always looked bad to some, it’s just now they have a big mouthpiece in social media, and whining gets the clicks. I have friends ranging from Marxists to MAGA, and can see that all of us are constantly being bombarded by “things are really, really horrible” from extremists on both sides.
Don’t let these pessimistic haters of current America ruin your life. The Constitution still holds. I voted today, and it felt great!
This article is like click bait and not well thought out. It’s too simple, like a child’s thinking.
It also asks the wrong questions because the author apparently lives in a bubble
Maybe ask if someone would fight to prevent another Hitler or Stalin who might murder lots of people?
Maybe ask if people believe in the Constitution? The flippancy of the article is the danger, as it causes people to not realize the dangers at hand; and, that in itself could bring about just such a war. The entitled my way or the highest attitude in many is how it could frustrate many to go too far. We currently have elites using political power to do vendettas and rob their “enemies” thru a might makes right attitude, with no regard for fair rule of law or constitutional rights.
JoAnna McDonald your ignorance is astounding and your optimism misplaced. There will be a civil war that’s inevitable.
What’s happening now is NOT sustainable and WILL collapse. You are trying so desperately to make something complicated that isn’t, first history repeats itself, empires fall and humans are fundamentally waring beings this will not change nor has it ever.